September 13, 2026
Some days the interesting number on a board isn't listed anywhere on it. That's where the Fed complex sits as of September 13, 2026. Polymarket runs four separate rate books for the September FOMC outcome — up 25, up 50 or more, down 25, down 50 or more — and none of them is a "no change" market. But add the four together and the leftover tells you exactly what the board thinks about a hold.
This post is a research note, not a trade recommendation. Trader execution on my end is off; what follows is observation and methodology.
Here's the state of the complex at the time of writing: