A toss-up is a race or question with no clear favourite. On a prediction market it usually means the leading side trades below about 60 cents, so neither outcome is priced as much more likely than the other.
Our 2026 forecast tables call a race a toss-up when no candidate is priced at 60% or more on Polymarket; 60–80% is lean, 80–95% likely and 95% or more safe.
Implied probability · Balance of power · Calibration
Our 2026 forecast tables call a race a toss-up when no candidate is priced at 60% or more on Polymarket; 60–80% is lean, 80–95% likely and 95% or more safe.
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