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Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 62.5% chance to win the Senate in 2026 (as of September 24, 2026). Across 35 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 17 and Republicans in 17, other candidates in 1; the closest: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 53.5%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 59.5%); the most likely Republican Senate seat count is ≤47 (37.5%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 62.5% | |
| Republican Party | 37.5% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| ≤47 | 37.5% | |
| 48 | 15.5% | |
| 49 | 13.5% | |
| 50 | 10.5% | |
| 51 | 8.5% | |
| 52 | 5.5% | |
| 53 | 3.1% | |
| 54 | 2.1% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | |
| 57+ | 0.5% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 63.5% | |
| D Senate, R House | 1.1% | |
| R Senate, D House | 30.5% | |
| Republicans Sweep | 7.5% |
Toss-up: 2 · Lean: 6 · Likely: 11 · Safe: 16. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Josh Turek 46.5% | Ashley Hinson 53.5% | Toss-up | 44.5% / 55.5% | $565.8K |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 59.5% | Jon Husted 39.5% | Toss-up | 59.5% / 40.5% | $723.0K |
| Texas | James Talarico 61.5% | Ken Paxton 39.5% | Lean Democrat | 58.5% / 42.5% | $1.49M |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 67.5% | Susan Collins 32.5% | Lean Democrat | 66.5% / 34% | $1.85M |
| Nebraska | Democrat 0.4% | Pete Ricketts 68.5% | Lean Republican | 0.4% / 70.5% | $375.6K |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton 30.5% | Roger Marshall 69.5% | Lean Republican | 31% / 69.5% | $185.7K |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 71.5% | Mike Rogers 28.5% | Lean Democrat | 73.5% / 27.5% | $1.04M |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 26.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Mary Peltola) | 70.5% / 28.5% | $1.01M | |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas 84.5% | John E. Sununu 14.5% | Likely Democrat | 86.5% / 13.5% | $239.9K |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews 13.5% | Darline Graham Nordone 86.5% | Likely Republican | 13.5% / 86.5% | $332.1K |
| Montana | Alani Bankhead 0.4% | Kurt Alme 89% | Likely Republican | 1.0% / 90.5% | $133.7K |
| Florida | Angie Nixon 8.5% | Ashley Moody 91.5% | Likely Republican | 11.5% / 89.5% | $128.1K |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom 8.5% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 92% | Likely Republican | 9.0% / 91.1% | $97.9K |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan 92.5% | Michele Tafoya 7.5% | Likely Democrat | 90.5% / 9.8% | $96.1K |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis 6.5% | Julia Letlow 93% | Likely Republican | 5.2% / 94.8% | $38.1K |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff 94.5% | Mike Collins 5.4% | Likely Democrat | 94.6% / 5.8% | $166.0K |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper 94.5% | Michael Whatley 6.5% | Likely Democrat | 93.7% / 6.5% | $175.5K |
| Idaho | Democrat 0.9% | Jim Risch 94.6% | Likely Republican | 0.5% / 92.5% | $43.2K |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner 4.9% | Tom Cotton 94.7% | Likely Republican | 7.2% / 92.9% | $19.1K |
| South Dakota | Democrat 0.1% | Mike Rounds 95.2% | Safe Republican | 0.4% / 92.1% | $35.0K |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker 3.1% | Andy Barr 95.8% | Safe Republican | — | $34.4K |
| Alabama | Everett Wess 2.5% | Barry Moore 96% | Safe Republican | 3.6% / 97.5% | $12.9K |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper 96.2% | Mark Baisley 3.0% | Safe Democrat | 98.4% / 1.4% | $49.1K |
| Oklahoma | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 3.2% | Kevin Hern 96.5% | Safe Republican | 2.5% / 97.4% | $26.2K |
| Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw 3.3% | Bill Hagerty 96.6% | Safe Republican | 2.9% / 97.2% | $29.9K |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker 96.8% | Justin Murphy 3.4% | Safe Democrat | 97.8% / 1.3% | $21.2K |
| Wyoming | James W. Byrd 2.8% | Harriet Hageman 96.9% | Safe Republican | 1.8% / 98% | $17.9K |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján 97% | Larry Marker 3.1% | Safe Democrat | 97.4% / 2.5% | $26.0K |
| Virginia | Mark Warner 97.5% | Bert Mizusawa 1.6% | Safe Democrat | 97.6% / 2.7% | $23.6K |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley 97.6% | David Brock Smith 2.1% | Safe Democrat | 97.8% / 2.1% | $6.7K |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton 97.8% | Don Tracy 2.5% | Safe Democrat | 98.6% / 2.2% | $33.5K |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey 97.9% | John Deaton 1.9% | Safe Democrat | 98.2% / 1.4% | $48.4K |
| Delaware | Democrat 98.3% | Republican 1.4% | Safe Democrat | 98.6% / 0.8% | $31.6K |
| West Virginia | Rachel Fetty Anderson 2.1% | Shelley Moore Capito 98.4% | Safe Republican | 1.7% / 97.9% | $16.0K |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed 99.5% | Raymond McKay 0.9% | Safe Democrat | 99% / 1.1% | $26.6K |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 33 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.9 points on average; the widest gap is Texas (Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask. Control of the chamber on both: Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Independent and third-party candidates priced at 10% or more: Nebraska (Independent 32.5%); Montana (Independent 11%).
Races led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska (Mary Peltola 73.5%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Governor forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · All senate markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 62.5% chance to win the Senate in 2026 (as of September 24, 2026). Across 35 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 17 and Republicans in 17, other candidates in 1; the closest: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 53.5%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 59.5%); the most likely Republican Senate seat count is ≤47 (37.5%).
Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 53.5%); Ohio (Sherrod Brown 59.5%).
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 33 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.9 points on average; the widest gap is Texas (Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.