Home › Polymarket odds › 2026 Midterms › Senate forecast
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Across 2 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0.
Safe: 2. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 98.4% | Sen. Dan Sullivan 1.6% | Safe Democrat | 97.2% / 2.7% | $7.98M |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom 98.7% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 1.1% | Safe Democrat | 98.6% / 1.5% | $6.26M |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 2 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.6 points on average; the widest gap is Alaska (Polymarket 98.4%, Kalshi 97.2%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask. Control of the chamber on both: Polymarket vs Kalshi. All matched outcomes: how close are Polymarket and Kalshi?
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Governor forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All senate markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “2026 Senate forecast from Polymarket odds”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Across 2 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0.
No race is a toss-up right now: every favourite is priced at 60% or more.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 2 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.6 points on average; the widest gap is Alaska (Polymarket 98.4%, Kalshi 97.2%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free to use on your site with the source link included (CC BY 4.0); it updates twice a day:
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/senate-map-2026/" width="100%" height="470" style="border:0;max-width:600px" loading="lazy" title="2026 Senate map from Polymarket odds"></iframe>
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.