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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: May 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.1% at 29.6%, followed by ≤2.9% at 23.9%, 3.7%+ at 16.1%. The market has $43.7K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1% | 29.6% | +0.1 pts | $9.1K |
| ≤2.9% | 23.9% | -0.1 pts | $9.4K |
| 3.7%+ | 16.1% | +11.8 pts | $1.1K |
| 3.2% | 15% | -4.5 pts | $5.5K |
| 3.0% | 11.1% | +0.1 pts | $5.4K |
| 3.3% | 4.5% | — | $4.1K |
| 3.4% | 4.5% | — | $4.6K |
| 3.6% | 3.5% | — | $939 |
| 3.5% | 2.1% | +0.4 pts | $3.6K |
Total volume $43.7K · 24h volume $400 · Liquidity $6.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 3.1% ■ ≤2.9% ■ 3.7%+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.1% at 29.6%, followed by ≤2.9% at 23.9%, 3.7%+ at 16.1%. The market has $43.7K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is May 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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