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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 53.9%, followed by SpaceX at 40.5%, OpenAI at 0.7%. The market has $6.09M in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 53.9% | -1.9 pts | $1.14M |
| SpaceX | 40.5% | +0.5 pts | $905.9K |
| OpenAI | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $573.8K |
| Kraken | <0.1% | — | $661.0K |
| Revolut | <0.1% | — | $634.1K |
| Databricks | <0.1% | — | $620.3K |
| SHEIN | <0.1% | — | $586.6K |
| Waymo | <0.1% | — | $318.1K |
| ByteDance | <0.1% | — | $218.0K |
| Discord | <0.1% | — | $186.9K |
| Stripe | <0.1% | — | $138.2K |
| Perplexity AI | <0.1% | — | $108.1K |
Total volume $6.09M · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $804.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ SpaceX ■ OpenAI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · OpenAI odds · Big Tech odds · Elon Musk odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 53.9%, followed by SpaceX at 40.5%, OpenAI at 0.7%. The market has $6.09M in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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