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Updated October 13, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 13, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 93.9%, followed by Marine Le Pen at 92%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 89.5%. The market has $539.9K in total volume and $5.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93.9% | +0.1 pts | $24.9K |
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | +0.5 pts | $35.1K |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 89.5% | +4.5 pts | $21.9K |
| Édouard Philippe | 89.5% | +0.5 pts | $20.5K |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86.5% | -0.5 pts | $8.2K |
| Éric Zemmour | 83.5% | +5.0 pts | $19.8K |
| Fabien Roussel | 80% | — | $4.7K |
| David Lisnard | 73.5% | — | $22.8K |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 68.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.0K |
| Bruno Retailleau | 59.5% | -0.5 pts | $17.5K |
| Marine Tondelier | 31.5% | -0.5 pts | $13.3K |
| Dominique de Villepin | 30.5% | — | $21.5K |
| François Hollande | 26.5% | -3.5 pts | $38.3K |
| François Asselineau | 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $15.2K |
| François Ruffin | 24% | — | $2.7K |
31 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $539.9K · 24h volume $5.2K · Liquidity $718.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jean-Luc Mélenchon ■ Marine Le Pen ■ Raphaël Glucksmann · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds · Politics odds
As of October 13, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 93.9%, followed by Marine Le Pen at 92%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 89.5%. The market has $539.9K in total volume and $5.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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