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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 9.1%. The market has $99.2K in total volume and $787 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 9.1% | -10.6 pts | $7.5K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $91.7K |
Total volume $99.2K · 24h volume $787 · Liquidity $9.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Canada odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 9.1%. The market has $99.2K in total volume and $787 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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