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Canada Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 7, 2026 · 38 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 38 live Canada markets with $15.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Bank of Canada Decision in December? (No Change 74.5%), followed by Bank of Canada Decision in March? (No Change 46.5%), Brantford—Brant South By-Election Winner (Joy O'Donnell 75.5%).

Canada: federal politics, the prime minister and elections. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Canada markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Bank of Canada Decision in December?No Change 74.5%+6.5 pts$8.5KDec 9, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in March?No Change 46.5%-11.0 pts$1.5KMar 3, 2027
Brantford—Brant South By-Election WinnerJoy O'Donnell 75.5%-0.5 pts$1.4KDec 7, 2026
Abbotsford-Mission By-Election WinnerPam Alexis 3.8%-0.1 pts$921Mar 31, 2027
USMCA extended in 2026?Yes 7.5%+1.5 pts$647Jan 1, 2027
Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election WinnerLee Fairclough 64%+2.0 pts$486Nov 10, 2026
Will Alberta join the US?Yes 1.7%+0.4 pts$477Jan 1, 2027
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease?By December 31 93.8%+4.8 pts$466Jan 1, 2027
Trump announces Canada tariff increase?By October 31 62.6%-27.5 pts$381Jan 1, 2027
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton By-Election WinnerCaroline Émond 67%+2.5 pts$316Dec 7, 2026
Canada becomes EU Associate Member?By December 31, 2027 25.5%-12.5 pts$157Jul 1, 2027
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?Yes 10.8%+1.1 pts$98Feb 16, 2027
Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)-0.2 to -0.1% 53.5%-4.0 pts$71Nov 30, 2026
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs?By December 31 57%—$63Jan 1, 2027
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie By-Election WinnerPierre Céré 28.5%-2.0 pts$62Dec 7, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in January?No Change 51.5%—$60Jan 27, 2027
Canada Annual Inflation 20263.0-3.4% 40.5%-1.7 pts$30Jan 19, 2027
Another Canada election called?By December 31, 2026 5.5%+0.1 pts$27Jan 1, 2027
Yorkton—Melville By-Election WinnerNelson Pohl 95.1%-1.7 pts$5Dec 7, 2026
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes 12%+0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Yes 10%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Tariff increase on Canada in effect?By December 31, 2026 1.8%+0.4 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026?↓1.25 52%+1.0 pts$0Dec 31, 2026
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election WinnerSheldon Clare 25.1%+0.1 pts$0Dec 31, 2027
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?Yes 4.9%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?Yes 2.9%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?Yes 3.5%-0.2 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?Yes 15%—$0Jan 1, 2029
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?Yes 6.0%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Scarborough North By-Election WinnerJames Li 95.5%+0.4 pts$0Dec 7, 2026
Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election WinnerGuy Cormier 94.5%+0.5 pts$0Dec 7, 2026
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?Yes 18%—$0May 1, 2027
Canada's population Up or Down this year?Up 57%—$0May 1, 2027
Canada applies for full EU membership?By December 31, 2027 8.0%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta?By March 31 22%—$0Apr 1, 2027
Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?Yes 17.5%-8.5 pts$0Apr 1, 2027
Canada passes under-16 social media ban in 2026?Yes 46.5%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?Yes 8.0%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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More Politics & Elections odds

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Canada odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 38 live Canada markets with $15.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Bank of Canada Decision in December? (No Change 74.5%), followed by Bank of Canada Decision in March? (No Change 46.5%), Brantford—Brant South By-Election Winner (Joy O'Donnell 75.5%).

How many Canada markets are open on Polymarket?

38 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Canada odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/canada/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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