Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 23, 2026 · 99 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 99 live Canada markets with $77.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner (Kerry-Lynne Findlay 5.3%), followed by Toronto Mayoral Election Winner (Olivia Chow 87%), US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs? (By December 31 44%).
Canada: federal politics, the prime minister and elections. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner | Kerry-Lynne Findlay 5.3% | +0.9 pts | $29.9K | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Toronto Mayoral Election Winner | Olivia Chow 87% | -1.5 pts | $11.7K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs? | By December 31 44% | +0.5 pts | $10.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election Winner | PQ 92.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.1K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in October? | No Change 53.6% | -1.1 pts | $4.8K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 45% | +4.5 pts | $1.7K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Next Premier of Quebec | Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 94.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election: Second Place | PLQ 83% | -5.0 pts | $1.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM) | 0.0 to 0.1% 53.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.1K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner | Pete Fry 62.1% | -6.1 pts | $1.1K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats? | 28-31 34.5% | — | $816 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Canada becomes EU Associate Member? | By December 31, 2027 41.5% | +6.5 pts | $791 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Waterloo, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Dorothy McCabe 73.5% | — | $725 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner | Caroline Elliott 32.5% | — | $479 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | Yes 13.5% | -1.0 pts | $475 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory? | PQ <10 25% | — | $431 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes 6.8% | +0.3 pts | $426 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Éloïse Coulombe 58% | +3.5 pts | $420 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Frédéric Poulin 50.5% | +38.5 pts | $316 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Sylvie Tanguay 60% | +6.5 pts | $276 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| USMCA extended in 2026? | Yes 8.5% | -1.5 pts | $251 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner | Bonnie Crombie 52% | -4.0 pts | $202 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Trump announces Canada tariff decrease? | By December 31 62.5% | +2.5 pts | $197 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Andrés Fontecilla 54.5% | -1.0 pts | $165 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner | Philip Brown 49% | +3.5 pts | $149 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Canada Annual Inflation 2026 | 3.0-3.4% 36.2% | — | $136 | Jan 19, 2027 |
| British Columbia General Election: 3rd Place | Greens 76% | — | $120 | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Richmond Mayoral Election | Rob Howard 47.5% | -3.8 pts | $119 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? | 20-24 23.5% | +0.5 pts | $110 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Stratford, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Martin Ritsma 58.5% | +3.0 pts | $87 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Sol Zanetti 50% | +3.5 pts | $84 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Alexandre Leduc 57.5% | +1.0 pts | $83 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Yes 0.9% | — | $77 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Eric Girard 47% | -2.5 pts | $76 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| London, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Josh Morgan 90% | — | $64 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Winnipeg Mayoral Election | Scott Gillingham 57.5% | +2.5 pts | $63 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? | Yes 33.5% | -1.0 pts | $62 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Another Canada election called? | By December 31, 2026 17.8% | +0.7 pts | $60 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner | Jérôme Gagnon 54% | +1.5 pts | $60 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Surrey Mayoral Election | Brenda Locke 75.5% | +0.5 pts | $56 | Oct 18, 2026 |
59 smaller markets are not shown; all 99 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Canada markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Trump (110) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (296) · Senate Races (128) · Governor Races (88) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (168) · Brazil (100) · France (36) · Germany (22) · United Kingdom (22)
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 99 live Canada markets with $77.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner (Kerry-Lynne Findlay 5.3%), followed by Toronto Mayoral Election Winner (Olivia Chow 87%), US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs? (By December 31 44%).
99 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Canada markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/canada/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Canada odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/canada/">Canada odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/canada.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog