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Canada Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 10, 2026 · 96 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Canada: federal politics, the prime minister and elections. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Canada markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Next Premier of British Columbia | Lorne Doerkson 69.5% | +4.0 pts | $7.0K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory | Remain 40–60% 55% | — | $4.6K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Craig Hodge 89.8% | -6.6 pts | $4.4K | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in October? | No Change 82.6% | +1.2 pts | $3.8K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner | Mark Sutcliffe 93% | +5.0 pts | $3.6K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Mike O'Reilly 75.5% | +10.5 pts | $3.3K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner | Pete Fry 59.6% | +0.1 pts | $3.3K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Burnaby Mayoral Election | Mike Hurley 96.8% | +4.2 pts | $2.0K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election: 3rd Place | Greens 96% | +5.0 pts | $1.8K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) | 0.2 to 0.3% 45.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.7K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Jack Crompton 90.5% | +8.0 pts | $1.6K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes 1.8% | -0.3 pts | $1.5K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Dylan Kruger 55.5% | +3.5 pts | $1.4K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Gary Sulz 65% | +4.0 pts | $1.3K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election: 2nd Place | NDP 67% | +12.5 pts | $1.1K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Gordon Zhang 57% | -1.5 pts | $1.1K | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Doug Morneau 41% | +16.0 pts | $1.0K | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Kevin Acton 62.5% | -20.5 pts | $941 | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Richmond Mayoral Election | Rob Howard 48.5% | -8.2 pts | $896 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Winnipeg Mayoral Election | Scott Gillingham 74% | +1.0 pts | $896 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Toronto Mayoral Election Winner | Olivia Chow 71.5% | -0.5 pts | $791 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Patrick Johnstone 67% | +21.0 pts | $641 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 50.5% | +3.0 pts | $624 | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Erwin Wiens 55% | +1.0 pts | $623 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Windsor, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Drew Dilkens 66% | +1.0 pts | $597 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Jagrup Brar 40.5% | +20.5 pts | $590 | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Kelowna Mayoral Election | Ron Cannan 63.5% | +1.0 pts | $581 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Trump announces Canada tariff decrease? | By December 31 79% | +11.0 pts | $572 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Burlington, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Marianne Meed Ward 62% | -5.0 pts | $559 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Jessie Sunner 40.5% | — | $552 | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Sault Ste. Marie, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Joel Rowswell 65% | +20.0 pts | $545 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Terry Yung 28.5% | +2.5 pts | $531 | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Zac de Vries 67.5% | -1.5 pts | $525 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election Winner | Conservative 70% | +6.5 pts | $525 | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Canada becomes EU Associate Member? | By December 31, 2027 30.5% | -9.5 pts | $458 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Peterborough, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Neil Morton 43% | +1.5 pts | $449 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Greater Sudbury, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Paul Lefebvre 95.3% | +0.2 pts | $426 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner | Brennan Day 55.5% | +5.0 pts | $423 | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner | Lee Fairclough 56.5% | -3.0 pts | $410 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Fernie, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Harshan Ramadass 62% | -5.5 pts | $402 | Oct 18, 2026 |
56 smaller markets are not shown; all 96 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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More Politics & Elections odds
Trump (115) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (305) · Senate Races (143) · Governor Races (97) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (33) · World Elections (160) · Brazil (56) · France (28) · Germany (16) · United Kingdom (18) · Mexico (64) · Politics (94)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Canada odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 10, 2026 at 16:47 UTC, Polymarket lists 96 live Canada markets with $63.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next Premier of British Columbia (Lorne Doerkson 69.5%), followed by Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory (Remain 40–60% 55%), Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner (Craig Hodge 89.8%).
How many Canada markets are open on Polymarket?
96 live markets as of October 10, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Canada odds on Polymarket”, October 10, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/canada/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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