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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 43%, followed by By September 30 at 17%, By August 31 at 1.0%. The market has $75.8K in total volume and $548 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 43% | — | $3.4K |
| By September 30 | 17% | -2.5 pts | $23.5K |
| By August 31 | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $29.0K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.3 pts | $11.8K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $8.1K |
Total volume $75.8K · 24h volume $548 · Liquidity $17.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 ■ By August 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 43%, followed by By September 30 at 17%, By August 31 at 1.0%. The market has $75.8K in total volume and $548 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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