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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $68.41M traded in total and $108.0K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Volume
Yes	14.5%	-1.0 pts	$68.41M
No	85.5%	+1.0 pts	—

Total volume $68.41M · 24h volume $108.0K · Liquidity $1.25M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $68.41M traded in total and $108.0K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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Polymarket View, “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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