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Updated October 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 4, 2027
As of October 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 11:59 PM at 96.5%, followed by By November 30, 11:59 PM at 95.5%, By November 15, 11:59 PM at 93.1%. The market has $24.0K in total volume and $6.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 11:59 PM | 96.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.3K |
| By November 30, 11:59 PM | 95.5% | -0.7 pts | $3.8K |
| By November 15, 11:59 PM | 93.1% | -4.0 pts | $2.0K |
| By November 10, 11:59 PM | 91.8% | -5.2 pts | $1.0K |
| By November 13, 11:59 PM | 91.6% | -5.3 pts | $1.9K |
| By November 6, 11:59 PM | 90.6% | -5.5 pts | $2.3K |
| By November 5, 11:59 PM | 89.4% | -1.8 pts | $3.1K |
| By November 4, 11:59 PM | 82.5% | -5.0 pts | $3.9K |
| By November 4, 3:59 AM | 79.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.3K |
| By November 4, 12:59 AM | 60.5% | -3.0 pts | $496 |
| By November 3, 11:59 PM | 44.5% | — | $1.7K |
| By November 3, 10:59 PM | 19.5% | -13.0 pts | $236 |
Total volume $24.0K · 24h volume $6.6K · Liquidity $87.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 11:59 PM ■ By November 30, 11:59 PM ■ By November 15, 11:59 PM · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”.
Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count.
Under condition 1, no subsequent withdrawal of a control call will be relevant to this market.
Under condition 2, this market will remain open for one hour following the race call that brings a party’s standing calls to 218. If, within that hour, the Associated Press retracts any of those calls such that the party’s standing calls fall below 218, condition 2 will not be considered satisfied by that call. If no such retraction occurs within the hour, condition 2 will be considered satisfied as of the time of the 218th call, regardless of any later retraction. For resolution, the relevant time is the time of the 218th call, not the end of the one-hour period.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 11:59 PM at 96.5%, followed by By November 30, 11:59 PM at 95.5%, By November 15, 11:59 PM at 93.1%. The market has $24.0K in total volume and $6.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 4, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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