Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 18%, followed by By October 31 at 10.5%, By October 21 at 3.2%. The market has $28.2K in total volume and $30.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 18% | — | $7.9K |
| By October 31 | 10.5% | — | $11.9K |
| By October 21 | 3.2% | — | $8.4K |
Total volume $28.2K · 24h volume $30.6K · Liquidity $91.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By October 21 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 18%, followed by By October 31 at 10.5%, By October 21 at 3.2%. The market has $28.2K in total volume and $30.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="France declares state of emergency? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency/">France declares state of emergency? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “France declares state of emergency? — Polymarket odds”, October 19, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/france-declares-state-of-emergency.svg" alt="France declares state of emergency? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog