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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula at 69.5%, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30.5%, Escritor Augusto Cury at <0.1%. The market has $207.2K in total volume and $19.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula | 69.5% | — | $90.8K |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 30.5% | +2.5 pts | $97.3K |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | <0.1% | — | $6.9K |
| Renan Santos | <0.1% | — | $4.5K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <0.1% | — | $4.1K |
| Pablo Marçal | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| Zema | <0.1% | — | $546 |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | <0.1% | — | $477 |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi | <0.1% | — | $316 |
| Hertz Dias | <0.1% | — | $296 |
| Samara | <0.1% | — | $296 |
| Clariana Barao | <0.1% | — | $288 |
| Edmilson Costa | <0.1% | — | $259 |
Total volume $207.2K · 24h volume $19.0K · Liquidity $538.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lula ■ Flavio Bolsonaro ■ Escritor Augusto Cury · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula at 69.5%, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30.5%, Escritor Augusto Cury at <0.1%. The market has $207.2K in total volume and $19.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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