Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Brazil Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 100 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Brazil: the 2026 presidential election and the country's politics and economy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🇧🇷 Eleição presidencial 2026: probabilidades em português · Brazil election guide
Live Brazil markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9% | -0.5 pts | $520.9K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place | Flávio Bolsonaro 71% | +1.5 pts | $56.9K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place | Renan Santos 44% | +1.5 pts | $19.6K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner | Lula 69.5% | — | $19.0K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | Yes 5.6% | -0.9 pts | $16.3K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.1% | +0.2 pts | $15.2K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory | Lula da Silva <5% 52.5% | -0.5 pts | $13.6K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? | 39%+ 86% | -5.0 pts | $7.8K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Pernambuco Governor Election Winner | Raquel Lyra 53% | -4.0 pts | $4.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won | PL 85% | +1.5 pts | $4.2K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Paraná Governor Election Winner | Sergio Moro 80.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.6K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? | 44%+ 52% | +14.5 pts | $3.3K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Paraíba Senate Election: 1st Place | Joao Azevêdo 68% | -18.5 pts | $3.0K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? | 2-4% 24% | -11.0 pts | $2.5K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Sergipe Governor Election Winner | Fábio 74.5% | -10.0 pts | $2.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Bahia Governor Election Winner | Jerônimo Rodrigues 54.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás | Flavio Bolsonaro 71% | -19.0 pts | $1.7K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place | André do Prado 49.9% | +6.6 pts | $1.6K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Acre Governor Election Winner | Alan Rick 53% | -1.5 pts | $1.6K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Ceará Governor Election Winner | Ciro Gomes 53% | +6.5 pts | $1.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Augusto Cury Vote Share? | 4-6% 39% | -13.5 pts | $1.3K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul | Flavio Bolsonaro 90.5% | — | $1.3K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place | Guilherme Derrite 79% | +5.5 pts | $1.3K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Acre Senate Election: 1st Place | Marcio Bittar 51% | +1.0 pts | $1.2K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place | Marcelo Crivella 50.8% | +11.2 pts | $1.2K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso | Flavio Bolsonaro 90.8% | -6.2 pts | $1.0K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place | Ronaldo Caiado 44% | — | $980 | Oct 4, 2026 |
| São Paulo Governor Election Winner | Tarcísio de Freitas 98.9% | -0.1 pts | $939 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner | Cleitinho Azevedo 86.1% | -2.1 pts | $819 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place | Capitão Contar 61% | +1.0 pts | $800 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place | Alexandre Curi 31.5% | +1.5 pts | $772 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? | 25 bps decrease 78.5% | +6.5 pts | $603 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place | Rui Costa 81% | +1.0 pts | $588 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Mato Grosso Senate Election: 1st Place | Mauro Mendes 72% | -2.0 pts | $580 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place | Filipe Barros 41% | -3.5 pts | $567 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in December? | No Change 35% | -17.5 pts | $530 | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | Yes 14.5% | -0.5 pts | $487 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? | Flávio Bolsonaro 37% | -3.0 pts | $455 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place | Marília Campos 51% | +3.5 pts | $454 | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais | Lula 49% | -3.0 pts | $442 | Oct 5, 2026 |
60 smaller markets are not shown; all 100 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Brazil markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Related guides
More Politics & Elections odds
Trump (110) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (296) · Senate Races (128) · Governor Races (88) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (168) · France (36) · Germany (22) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (99)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Brazil odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 100 live Brazil markets with $726.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Brazil Presidential Election (Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9%), followed by Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place (Flávio Bolsonaro 71%), Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (Renan Santos 44%).
How many Brazil markets are open on Polymarket?
100 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
Embed Brazil odds
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Brazil markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/brazil/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Brazil odds on Polymarket"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/brazil/">Brazil odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog