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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fiona Ma at 94.5%, followed by Janelle Kellman at 2.1%, Rakesh Christian at 2.1%. The market has $30.9K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | 94.5% | — | $12.2K |
| Janelle Kellman | 2.1% | +0.4 pts | $1.4K |
| Rakesh Christian | 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K |
| Josh Fryday | 1.9% | +0.2 pts | $3.3K |
| Oliver Ma | 1.4% | — | $3.8K |
| Ebie Lynch | 1.1% | — | $1.4K |
| David Fennell | 0.6% | — | $1.3K |
| Jeyson Lopez | 0.6% | — | $1.3K |
| Sean Collinson | 0.3% | — | $1.2K |
| Michael Tubbs | 0.2% | — | $1.9K |
| David Collenberg | 0.1% | — | $1.5K |
Total volume $30.9K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $195.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Fiona Ma ■ Janelle Kellman ■ Rakesh Christian · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fiona Ma at 94.5%, followed by Janelle Kellman at 2.1%, Rakesh Christian at 2.1%. The market has $30.9K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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