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Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Across 2 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 1 and Republicans in 0, other candidates in 1; the most likely number of Republican governors is <22 (93.4%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| <22 | 93.4% | |
| 22–23 | 3.4% |
Safe: 2. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher 99.3% | Ty Masterson 0.2% | Safe Democrat | 99.8% / 0.3% | $865.4K |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99.4% · Bernadette Wilson 0.4% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | — | $1.95M | |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 1 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.5 points on average; the widest gap is Kansas (Polymarket 99.3%, Kalshi 99.8%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask. All matched outcomes: how close are Polymarket and Kalshi?
Races led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99.4%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All governor markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “2026 Governor forecast from Polymarket odds”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/governor-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Across 2 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 1 and Republicans in 0, other candidates in 1; the most likely number of Republican governors is <22 (93.4%).
No race is a toss-up right now: every favourite is priced at 60% or more.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 1 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.5 points on average; the widest gap is Kansas (Polymarket 99.3%, Kalshi 99.8%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
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