Home › Polymarket odds › 2026 Midterms › Governor forecast
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Across 36 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 19 and Republicans in 15, other candidates in 2; the closest: Nevada (Joe Lombardo 50%), Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%); the most likely number of Republican governors is 22–23 (34.5%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| <22 | 21.5% | |
| 22–23 | 34.5% | |
| 24–25 | 21.5% | |
| 26–27 | 17.5% | |
| 28–29 | 3.5% | |
| 30–31 | 1.1% | |
| 32+ | 0.6% |
Toss-up: 2 · Lean: 5 · Likely: 11 · Safe: 18. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Aaron Ford 49% | Joe Lombardo 50% | Toss-up | 46.5% / 53.5% | $171.1K |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms 54.5% | Rick Jackson 45.5% | Toss-up | 53.5% / 47.5% | $122.9K |
| Ohio | Amy Acton 61.5% | Vivek Ramaswamy 38.5% | Lean Democrat | 60.5% / 39.5% | $219.6K |
| Florida | David Jolly 26.5% | Byron Donalds 73.5% | Lean Republican | 23.5% / 76.5% | $182.7K |
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher 27.5% | Ty Masterson 73.5% | Lean Republican | 29.5% / 70.5% | $44.6K |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa 25.5% | Greg Abbott 74% | Lean Republican | 25.5% / 74.5% | $195.0K |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76.2% · Bernadette Wilson 18.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | — | $1.38M | |
| Iowa | Rob Sand 83.5% | Zach Lahn 16% | Likely Democrat | 82.5% / 17% | $95.1K |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley 85% | Tom Tiffany 15.5% | Likely Democrat | 83.5% / 16.5% | $615.0K |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek 86.5% | Christine Drazan 13.5% | Likely Democrat | 84% / 16% | $56.1K |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs 88.5% | Andy Biggs 10.5% | Likely Democrat | 89.5% / 11.5% | $83.0K |
| New Hampshire | Cinde Warmington 9.6% | Kelly Ayotte 90.5% | Likely Republican | — | $29.8K |
| Vermont | Amanda Janoo 5.9% | Phil Scott 92% | Likely Republican | 7.2% / 92.8% | $76.4K |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson 92.5% | John James 6.5% | Likely Democrat | 92.7% / 7.8% | $208.7K |
| Nebraska | Lynne Walz 6.5% | Jim Pillen 93.5% | Likely Republican | 7.8% / 92.1% | $14.1K |
| Oklahoma | Cyndi Munson 7.5% | Mike Mazzei 93.5% | Likely Republican | 8.6% / 91.5% | $31.5K |
| South Carolina | Jermaine Johnson 4.7% | Alan Wilson 94% | Likely Republican | 5.5% / 94.2% | $18.8K |
| Alabama | Doug Jones 6.0% | Tommy Tuberville 94.2% | Likely Republican | 7.4% / 92.8% | $23.2K |
| New York | Kathy Hochul 95% | Bruce Blakeman 4.5% | Safe Democrat | 94% / 6.1% | $127.1K |
| California | Xavier Becerra 95.3% · Steve Hilton 4.5% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Xavier Becerra) | 96.3% / 3.6% | $41.26M | |
| Wyoming | Kenneth Casner 3.5% | Eric Barlow 95.3% | Safe Republican | 4.0% / 96.4% | $11.5K |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar 95.5% | Lisa Demuth 5.1% | Safe Democrat | 95.3% / 5.2% | $73.2K |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland 95.5% | Gregg Hull 4.5% | Safe Democrat | 93% / 6.9% | $39.7K |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey 95.7% | Michael Minogue 2.9% | Safe Democrat | 95.3% / 5.1% | $94.9K |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree 95.8% | Robert Charles 3.6% | Safe Democrat | 94.5% / 4.7% | $34.8K |
| South Dakota | Dan Ahlers 3.5% | Larry Rhoden 95.9% | Safe Republican | 2.8% / 97.7% | $26.6K |
| Tennessee | Jerri Green 3.5% | Marsha Blackburn 96% | Safe Republican | 4.9% / 95.4% | $9.9K |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont 96.2% | Ryan Fazio 3.5% | Safe Democrat | 96.5% / 3.2% | $9.4K |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes 96.2% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | 95.7% / 3.1% | $69.7K |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser 96.6% | Victor Marx 3.6% | Safe Democrat | 96.8% / 3.1% | $16.4K |
| Maryland | Wes Moore 96.6% | Dan Cox 2.1% | Safe Democrat | 96.7% / 2.9% | $22.3K |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro 96.6% | Stacy Garrity 2.9% | Safe Democrat | 97.4% / 2.9% | $49.9K |
| Idaho | Terri Pickens 2.9% | Brad Little 96.8% | Safe Republican | 2.6% / 97.6% | $24.7K |
| Arkansas | Fredrick Love 2.1% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97% | Safe Republican | 2.8% / 97.5% | $11.0K |
| Hawaii | Josh Green 97% | Gary Cordery 3.1% | Safe Democrat | 97.4% / 2.8% | $16.3K |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker 97.7% | Darren Bailey 1.4% | Safe Democrat | 97.4% / 2.6% | $11.7K |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 33 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 1.0 points on average; the widest gap is Florida (Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.5%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask.
Races led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76.2%); California (Xavier Becerra 95.3%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · All governor markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
Across 36 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 19 and Republicans in 15, other candidates in 2; the closest: Nevada (Joe Lombardo 50%), Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%); the most likely number of Republican governors is 22–23 (34.5%).
Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: Nevada (Joe Lombardo 50%); Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%).
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 33 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 1.0 points on average; the widest gap is Florida (Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.5%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.