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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 54.5%. The market has $30.4K in total volume and $466 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | 54.5% | +36.5 pts | $5.0K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.0 pts | $10.0K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -8.5 pts | $9.5K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -19.4 pts | $5.8K |
Total volume $30.4K · 24h volume $466 · Liquidity $102. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 54.5%. The market has $30.4K in total volume and $466 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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