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OpenAI Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 68 live markets · refreshed twice a day
OpenAI: GPT model releases, products and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live OpenAI markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of September? | Anthropic 98.5% | +0.2 pts | $89.9K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September? | OpenAI 59.1% | -11.2 pts | $22.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 61.3% | -7.0 pts | $18.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes 13.5% | +7.5 pts | $15.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 73.5% | +3.0 pts | $14.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? | 1450+ 76% | +11.5 pts | $8.5K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? | <$1T 17.6% | +4.0 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product? | By December 31, 2026 25.5% | -1.5 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Anthropic 88.5% | — | $7.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO? | By June 30, 2027 57% | +1.5 pts | $6.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 18.5% | +4.0 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30? | ↑$975B 37.5% | +12.0 pts | $6.0K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 19.5% | — | $5.2K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released? | By October 31 32.5% | -12.0 pts | $4.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $800B 79.6% | -2.1 pts | $4.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 81.5% | — | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026? | $900B-$1.00T 58% | -28.0 pts | $2.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.0T 85.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.8K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement? | By December 31, 2026 13.5% | — | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| 3rd largest private company end of September? | ByteDance 97.4% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | Yes 13.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 53.9% | -1.9 pts | $1.3K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? | 1430+ 72.5% | +10.0 pts | $1.2K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| How many Codex resets week of September 21? | 2 60.5% | +36.0 pts | $1.1K | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | Yes 20.9% | -17.1 pts | $929 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | No IPO by December 31, 2026 96.5% | +0.1 pts | $787 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 90.5% | +2.5 pts | $784 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 78% | — | $746 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic 94.8% | +0.1 pts | $619 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Largest private company end of September? | Anthropic 99.6% | +0.2 pts | $440 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| 2nd largest private company end of September? | OpenAI 94.5% | -1.1 pts | $350 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? | Yes 2.8% | -0.8 pts | $339 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 94% | -0.5 pts | $279 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | -0.9 pts | $129 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? | Yes 34% | -9.0 pts | $117 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI 9.0% | -5.0 pts | $114 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit? | September 23 24.5% | -25.5 pts | $90 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Anthropic 87% | +1.5 pts | $75 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups? | By October 31, 2026 78.5% | — | $73 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? | Clip-on device for clothing 18% | +0.5 pts | $56 | Jan 1, 2027 |
28 smaller markets are not shown; all 68 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the OpenAI odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 68 live OpenAI markets with $244.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has the best AI model end of September? (Anthropic 98.5%), followed by Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September? (OpenAI 59.1%), OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap (1.5T+ 61.3%).
How many OpenAI markets are open on Polymarket?
68 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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