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OpenAI Odds on Polymarket
Updated November 7, 2026 · 80 live markets · refreshed twice a day
OpenAI: GPT model releases, products and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live OpenAI markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | SpaceX 87.5% | -1.0 pts | $96.9K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 96.8% | -1.9 pts | $42.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% | +3.0 pts | $42.5K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 63.5% | +3.0 pts | $26.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | November 12 31.4% | +10.8 pts | $12.9K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 55.5% | +0.5 pts | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product? | By December 31, 2026 11.5% | -2.5 pts | $6.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI announces bankruptcy? | By December 31, 2029 22% | +0.5 pts | $5.5K | Jan 1, 2030 |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 9–November 15 57% | +2.5 pts | $5.2K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed? | By June 30 91% | — | $3.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? | <$1T 28.1% | -0.2 pts | $2.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut? | Top 20 26.5% | -22.0 pts | $2.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? | 1430+ 80.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 32.6% | -1.6 pts | $1.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.3T 55.5% | -16.0 pts | $1.5K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026? | $1.30T+ 73% | -9.0 pts | $1.3K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| # of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026? | <3 51.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.3K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? | 1440+ 36.7% | +0.4 pts | $1.0K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released? | By December 31 97% | — | $987 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by November 30? | ↓$1.15T 49.5% | -1.5 pts | $953 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 82% | -0.5 pts | $750 | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? | Saudi Arabia 17% | -5.0 pts | $692 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| ChatGPT Outage? | By November 30 69.5% | +12.0 pts | $513 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | Google 96.8% | +0.6 pts | $476 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | OpenAI 97.1% | -1.1 pts | $448 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $800B 73% | -0.4 pts | $415 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI IPO? | By June 30, 2027 45.5% | — | $398 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape? | By November 15 99.7% | +46.7 pts | $260 | Nov 16, 2026 |
| OpenAI’s valuation end of December 2026? | $1.00-$1.15T 36.5% | -1.5 pts | $230 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO? | Goldman Sachs 55.5% | +2.5 pts | $200 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? | OpenAI 54.5% | +2.5 pts | $186 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? | Earbuds/Headphones 11.5% | +0.5 pts | $182 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? | ↓ $40 66.5% | -8.5 pts | $181 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | None in 2026 49.5% | +1.0 pts | $157 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? | 55%+ 93.5% | — | $80 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 7.0% | +1.0 pts | $75 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | DeepSeek 97.2% | +0.4 pts | $50 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Next GPT Terra (6.2+) released? | By December 31 55% | +2.5 pts | $50 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| ChatGPT Dots on the free plan? | By December 31 27% | -7.5 pts | $21 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? | OpenAI 53% | -0.5 pts | $21 | Jan 1, 2028 |
40 smaller markets are not shown; all 80 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the OpenAI odds on Polymarket today?
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 80 live OpenAI markets with $274.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? (SpaceX 87.5%), followed by GPT Astra 6.1+ released? (By December 31 96.8%), Which company has the best AI model end of November? (Google 76%).
How many OpenAI markets are open on Polymarket?
80 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “OpenAI odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/openai/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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