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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Georgia at 22.2%, followed by Nevada at 12.8%, Texas at 12%. The market has $24.6K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 22.2% | — | $3.0K |
| Nevada | 12.8% | +0.8 pts | $4.8K |
| Texas | 12% | — | $1.4K |
| Ohio | 7.5% | +2.8 pts | $2.1K |
| Kansas | 7.2% | +0.9 pts | $1.1K |
| Florida | 7.1% | -2.2 pts | $1.3K |
| Tennessee | 6.7% | +0.1 pts | $391 |
| Wisconsin | 6.0% | +1.9 pts | $1.9K |
| Oklahoma | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $336 |
| Arkansas | 4.6% | -1.7 pts | $266 |
| Oregon | 4.5% | +0.2 pts | $1.7K |
| Vermont | 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.2K |
| Alaska | 2.1% | +0.2 pts | $353 |
| Idaho | 1.9% | -0.8 pts | $231 |
| New Hampshire | 1.8% | -1.8 pts | $285 |
21 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $24.6K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $491.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Georgia ■ Nevada ■ Texas · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Governor Races odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Georgia at 22.2%, followed by Nevada at 12.8%, Texas at 12%. The market has $24.6K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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