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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 29, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.3% at 49%, followed by 0.4% at 34%, 0.2% at 8.0%. The market has $20.6K in total volume and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3% | 49% | -17.5 pts | $7.9K |
| 0.4% | 34% | +15.0 pts | $2.6K |
| 0.2% | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $4.7K |
| 0.5%+ | 4.9% | +0.1 pts | $670 |
| 0.0% | 0.6% | -0.6 pts | $908 |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $3.2K |
| ≤-0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pts | $646 |
Total volume $20.6K · 24h volume $3.2K · Liquidity $8.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0.3% ■ 0.4% ■ 0.2% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.3% at 49%, followed by 0.4% at 34%, 0.2% at 8.0%. The market has $20.6K in total volume and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 29, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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