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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 90.5%, followed by By November 15 at 86.5%, By October 31 at 83.5%. The market has $72.4K in total volume and $74.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 90.5% | — | $11.2K |
| By November 15 | 86.5% | — | $13.4K |
| By October 31 | 83.5% | — | $15.1K |
| By October 24 | 81% | — | $32.8K |
Total volume $72.4K · 24h volume $74.4K · Liquidity $39.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 15 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify.
A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city.
Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.
Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 90.5%, followed by By November 15 at 86.5%, By October 31 at 83.5%. The market has $72.4K in total volume and $74.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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