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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jon Ossoff at 52.5%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18.5%, Gavin Newsom at 14%. The market has $25.6K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 52.5% | +14.0 pts | $9.9K |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18.5% | -28.0 pts | $6.8K |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | +3.5 pts | $6.7K |
| Kamala Harris | 0.5% | -3.3 pts | $1.2K |
| Josh Shapiro | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $937 |
Total volume $25.6K · 24h volume $8.8K · Liquidity $6.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Jon Ossoff ■ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ■ Gavin Newsom · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered.
If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other".
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Jon Ossoff at 52.5%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18.5%, Gavin Newsom at 14%. The market has $25.6K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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