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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 23, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 200+ at 21.8%, followed by 120-139 at 15.9%, 160-179 at 14.8%. The market has $20.6K in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200+ | 21.8% | -1.3 pts | $5.1K |
| 120-139 | 15.9% | -2.7 pts | $1.8K |
| 160-179 | 14.8% | -0.2 pts | $1.7K |
| 140-159 | 14.1% | -4.2 pts | $2.0K |
| 180-199 | 12.8% | +2.9 pts | $3.7K |
| 100-119 | 12.8% | +3.1 pts | $3.2K |
| 80-99 | 6.1% | +0.9 pts | $864 |
| 60-79 | 1.7% | -0.9 pts | $534 |
| 40-59 | 0.5% | — | $601 |
| 20-39 | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $650 |
| <20 | <0.1% | -0.9 pts | $348 |
Total volume $20.6K · 24h volume $9.4K · Liquidity $18.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 200+ ■ 120-139 ■ 160-179 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 16, 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Elon Musk odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 200+ at 21.8%, followed by 120-139 at 15.9%, 160-179 at 14.8%. The market has $20.6K in total volume and $9.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 23, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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