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Resolved market · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (October 15, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on 840-879, after $466.8K of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 840-879 | 100% | +48.9 pts | $84.9K |
| 880-919 | 0.0% | -46.0 pts | $75.3K |
| 800-839 | 0.0% | -4.5 pts | $61.5K |
| 920-959 | 0.0% | -1.8 pts | $54.8K |
| 960-999 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $31.4K |
| 760-799 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $31.1K |
| 1000-1039 | 0.0% | — | $18.0K |
| 720-759 | 0.0% | — | $15.3K |
| 680-719 | 0.0% | — | $12.0K |
| 1040-1079 | 0.0% | — | $9.8K |
| 640-679 | 0.0% | — | $7.1K |
| 1400+ | 0.0% | — | $6.6K |
| 1120-1159 | 0.0% | — | $6.3K |
| 360-399 | 0.0% | — | $6.1K |
| 560-599 | 0.0% | — | $5.8K |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $466.8K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 840-879 ■ 880-919 ■ 800-839 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X during the month of September 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Elon Musk odds · Politics odds · Pop Culture odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 15, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on 840-879, after $466.8K of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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