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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 13, 2026
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 200-219 at 24.5%, followed by 180-199 at 23.5%, 220-239 at 19.5%. The market has $29.1K in total volume and $29.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 24.5% | — | $3.3K |
| 180-199 | 23.5% | — | $3.4K |
| 220-239 | 19.5% | — | $1.7K |
| 160-179 | 12.5% | — | $350 |
| 240-259 | 8.5% | — | $225 |
| 260-279 | 4.5% | — | $278 |
| 140-159 | 4.5% | — | $485 |
| 280-299 | 1.9% | — | $515 |
| 120-139 | 1.8% | — | $2.1K |
| 300-319 | 1.2% | — | $285 |
| 320-339 | 0.8% | — | $300 |
| 100-119 | 0.7% | — | $425 |
| 340-359 | 0.7% | — | $365 |
| 360-379 | 0.5% | — | $375 |
| 380-399 | 0.4% | — | $1.8K |
11 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $29.1K · 24h volume $29.5K · Liquidity $360.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 200-219 ■ 180-199 ■ 220-239 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 6 12:00 PM ET to October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Elon Musk odds · Politics odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 200-219 at 24.5%, followed by 180-199 at 23.5%, 220-239 at 19.5%. The market has $29.1K in total volume and $29.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 13, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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