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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 47.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 19.5%, By March 31, 2027 at 10%. The market has $31.5K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 47.5% | +13.0 pts | $631 |
| By June 30, 2027 | 19.5% | — | $1.0K |
| By March 31, 2027 | 10% | -1.5 pts | $4.5K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $11.6K |
| By November 30, 2026 | 0.2% | -1.2 pts | $13.8K |
Total volume $31.5K · 24h volume $1.7K · Liquidity $43.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By March 31, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 47.5%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 19.5%, By March 31, 2027 at 10%. The market has $31.5K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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