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Updated October 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 23, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $22.9K traded in total and $6.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14.5% | +6.5 pts | $22.9K |
| No | 85.5% | -6.5 pts | — |
Total volume $22.9K · 24h volume $6.8K · Liquidity $20.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 23, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $22.9K traded in total and $6.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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