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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 15 at 3.8%, followed by By December 31 at 3.4%, By October 31 at 1.1%. The market has $66.3K in total volume and $67.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 15 | 3.8% | — | $24.4K |
| By December 31 | 3.4% | — | $30.6K |
| By October 31 | 1.1% | — | $11.3K |
Total volume $66.3K · 24h volume $67.4K · Liquidity $110.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 15 ■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 15 at 3.8%, followed by By December 31 at 3.4%, By October 31 at 1.1%. The market has $66.3K in total volume and $67.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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