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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 18, 2027
As of September 28, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is François Hollande at 65.5%, followed by Dominique de Villepin at 62.5%, Bernard Cazeneuve at 43.5%. The market has $98.9K in total volume and $343 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Éric Zemmour (settled) | 100% | +14.4 pts | $14.5K |
| Raphaël Glucksmann (settled) | 100% | +13.0 pts | $12.7K |
| Marine Le Pen (settled) | 100% | +2.5 pts | $10.5K |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon (settled) | 100% | +2.8 pts | $7.1K |
| Olivier Faure (settled) | 100% | +50.0 pts | $3.0K |
| Gabriel Attal (settled) | 100% | +8.5 pts | $1.4K |
| François Hollande | 65.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.8K |
| Dominique de Villepin | 62.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.7K |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 43.5% | +2.5 pts | $1.3K |
| Élisabeth Borne | 9.2% | -0.2 pts | $3.2K |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 8.9% | -0.3 pts | $1.1K |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 8.5% | — | $4.2K |
| Michel Barnier | 8.5% | -1.0 pts | $510 |
| Jordan Bardella | 8.0% | — | $6.5K |
| Manuel Bompard | 6.5% | — | $3.4K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $98.9K · 24h volume $343 · Liquidity $114.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ François Hollande ■ Dominique de Villepin ■ Bernard Cazeneuve · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.
Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds
As of September 28, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is François Hollande at 65.5%, followed by Dominique de Villepin at 62.5%, Bernard Cazeneuve at 43.5%. The market has $98.9K in total volume and $343 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 18, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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