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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 12.5%, followed by By October 31, 2026 at 6.5%, By September 30, 2026 at 0.8%. The market has $2.52M in total volume and $55.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 12.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.08M |
| By October 31, 2026 | 6.5% | -1.5 pts | $85.5K |
| By September 30, 2026 | 0.8% | -0.6 pts | $348.3K |
Total volume $2.52M · 24h volume $55.1K · Liquidity $167.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By October 31, 2026 ■ By September 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Germany odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 12.5%, followed by By October 31, 2026 at 6.5%, By September 30, 2026 at 0.8%. The market has $2.52M in total volume and $55.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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