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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 29, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.0–2.5% at 69%, followed by >2.5% at 29.9%, 1.5–2.0% at 2.6%. The market has $75.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0–2.5% | 69% | +5.5 pts | $16.2K |
| >2.5% | 29.9% | -0.1 pts | $19.5K |
| 1.5–2.0% | 2.6% | -6.4 pts | $9.0K |
| 0.5–1.0% | 1.4% | +0.9 pts | $18.0K |
| 1.0–1.5% | 1.1% | +0.4 pts | $4.7K |
| <0.5% | 1.0% | +0.1 pts | $8.4K |
Total volume $75.8K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $5.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2.0–2.5% ■ >2.5% ■ 1.5–2.0% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.0–2.5% at 69%, followed by >2.5% at 29.9%, 1.5–2.0% at 2.6%. The market has $75.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 29, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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