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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 92.2%, followed by By October 31 at 82.5%, By October 16 at 57.5%. The market has $24.7K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | 92.2% | -0.2 pts | $2.2K |
| By October 31 | 82.5% | +0.5 pts | $13.2K |
| By October 16 | 57.5% | -2.5 pts | $4.5K |
| By October 14 | 41% | -2.5 pts | $1.8K |
| By October 12 | 19.5% | -9.0 pts | $2.0K |
| By October 9 (settled) | 0.0% | -8.5 pts | $1.0K |
Total volume $24.7K · 24h volume $3.3K · Liquidity $9.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 ■ By October 16 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Gemini Argon" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 92.2%, followed by By October 31 at 82.5%, By October 16 at 57.5%. The market has $24.7K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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