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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October 13 at 28.9%, followed by No release by October 31 at 20.8%, October 29 at 14%. The market has $25.5K in total volume and $14.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 13 | 28.9% | +28.4 pts | $2.2K |
| No release by October 31 | 20.8% | +7.8 pts | $5.1K |
| October 29 | 14% | -10.9 pts | $461 |
| October 27 | 8.8% | -11.0 pts | $1.9K |
| October 23 | 8.0% | +3.5 pts | $819 |
| October 15 | 7.1% | +6.7 pts | $933 |
| October 14 | 6.5% | -4.5 pts | $406 |
| October 30 | 4.5% | -10.0 pts | $1.7K |
| October 20 | 4.4% | -3.1 pts | $594 |
| October 31 | 4.2% | +0.2 pts | $2.1K |
| October 12 | 4.0% | -9.0 pts | $452 |
| October 9 | 4.0% | -4.0 pts | $466 |
| October 18 | 3.5% | -1.9 pts | $798 |
| October 16 | 2.0% | +1.5 pts | $616 |
| October 11 | 1.9% | +0.2 pts | $628 |
10 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $25.5K · 24h volume $14.3K · Liquidity $16.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No release by October 31 ■ October 29 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public.
Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October 13 at 28.9%, followed by No release by October 31 at 20.8%, October 29 at 14%. The market has $25.5K in total volume and $14.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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