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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 85% at 11.5%, followed by 80% at 11%, 75% at 10.6%. The market has $29.2K in total volume and $564 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% (settled) | 100% | — | $6.3K |
| 85% | 11.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.0K |
| 80% | 11% | -4.0 pts | $5.3K |
| 75% | 10.6% | +0.6 pts | $11.8K |
| 90% | 5.4% | +2.0 pts | $2.8K |
Total volume $29.2K · 24h volume $564 · Liquidity $3.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 85% ■ 80% ■ 75% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.
The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 85% at 11.5%, followed by 80% at 11%, 75% at 10.6%. The market has $29.2K in total volume and $564 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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