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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 5.0% at 4.9%, followed by 5.5% at 4.3%, 7.0% at 3.8%. The market has $517.3K in total volume and $241 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 4.9% | -0.3 pts | $143.8K |
| 5.5% | 4.3% | — | $206.7K |
| 7.0% | 3.8% | -0.2 pts | $33.9K |
| 10.0% | 3.3% | -0.3 pts | $51.3K |
| 6.0% | 2.3% | +0.4 pts | $81.6K |
Total volume $517.3K · 24h volume $241 · Liquidity $14.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 5.0% ■ 5.5% ■ 7.0% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 5.0% at 4.9%, followed by 5.5% at 4.3%, 7.0% at 3.8%. The market has $517.3K in total volume and $241 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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