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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 5.43% at 77.5%, followed by Below 5.40% at 60%, Below 5.35% at 35%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5.49% (settled) | 100% | +52.9 pts | $4.6K |
| Below 5.46% (settled) | 100% | +59.1 pts | $3.8K |
| Below 5.52% (settled) | 100% | +42.4 pts | $2.7K |
| Below 5.55% (settled) | 100% | +25.0 pts | $2.1K |
| Below 5.43% | 77.5% | +11.0 pts | $1.1K |
| Below 5.40% | 60% | +8.0 pts | $1.8K |
| Below 5.35% | 35% | +15.5 pts | $1.7K |
| Below 5.30% | 14.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.3K |
| Below 5.25% | 14.5% | +9.5 pts | $1.0K |
Total volume $20.2K · 24h volume $4.0K · Liquidity $1.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Below 5.43% ■ Below 5.40% ■ Below 5.35% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 5.43% at 77.5%, followed by Below 5.40% at 60%, Below 5.35% at 35%. The market has $20.2K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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