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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 4, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 37% at 83%, followed by 35% at 31%, 34% at 19.5%. The market has $148.9K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% (settled) | 100% | — | $19.5K |
| 37% | 83% | +10.0 pts | $351 |
| 35% | 31% | +4.5 pts | $108.2K |
| 34% | 19.5% | +9.5 pts | $35 |
| 30% | 6.5% | +0.5 pts | $13.5K |
| 25% | 4.5% | — | $4.2K |
| 20% | 2.8% | +0.7 pts | $3.2K |
Total volume $148.9K · 24h volume $2.4K · Liquidity $19.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 37% ■ 35% ■ 34% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 37% at 83%, followed by 35% at 31%, 34% at 19.5%. The market has $148.9K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 4, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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