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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 12-15 at 45.8%, followed by <12 at 41.6%, 16-19 at 10%. The market has $127.7K in total volume and $770 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-15 | 45.8% | +0.1 pts | $40.7K |
| <12 | 41.6% | -0.2 pts | $18.1K |
| 16-19 | 10% | -1.0 pts | $26.2K |
| 24-27 | 0.4% | — | $14.1K |
| 20-23 | 0.1% | — | $16.8K |
| 28-31 | <0.1% | — | $6.6K |
| 32+ | <0.1% | — | $5.3K |
Total volume $127.7K · 24h volume $770 · Liquidity $23.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 12-15 ■ <12 ■ 16-19 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.
If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.
The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 12-15 at 45.8%, followed by <12 at 41.6%, 16-19 at 10%. The market has $127.7K in total volume and $770 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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