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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 28, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0 at 59.5%, followed by 3 at 25.5%, 1 at 13%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $399 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59.5% | +4.0 pts | $4.1K |
| 3 | 25.5% | -1.0 pts | $8.5K |
| 1 | 13% | -0.5 pts | $2.2K |
| 2 | 3.8% | +1.8 pts | $1.5K |
| 4+ | 2.5% | -1.2 pts | $4.0K |
Total volume $20.3K · 24h volume $399 · Liquidity $34.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0 ■ 3 ■ 1 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0 at 59.5%, followed by 3 at 25.5%, 1 at 13%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $399 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 28, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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