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Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 at 39%, followed by 3 at 23.4%, 4 at 12.4%. The market has $30.2K in total volume and $589 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 39% | -22.0 pts | $10.3K |
| 3 | 23.4% | +0.4 pts | $5.2K |
| 4 | 12.4% | +10.4 pts | $2.5K |
| 1 | 7.6% | -1.7 pts | $3.6K |
| 0 | 3.8% | -0.4 pts | $4.0K |
| 6+ | 0.7% | +0.2 pts | $2.0K |
| 5 | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $2.5K |
Total volume $30.2K · 24h volume $589 · Liquidity $53.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2 ■ 3 ■ 4 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Governor Races odds · Politics odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 at 39%, followed by 3 at 23.4%, 4 at 12.4%. The market has $30.2K in total volume and $589 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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