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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 2, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 58 at 8.5%, followed by Above 62 at 8.3%, Above 50 at 8.0%. The market has $113.8K in total volume and $859 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 58 | 8.5% | — | $11.7K |
| Above 62 | 8.3% | +0.1 pts | $14.6K |
| Above 50 | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $46.4K |
| Above 64 | 8.0% | -0.1 pts | $6.4K |
| Above 60 | 7.5% | — | $12.9K |
| Above 66 | 7.2% | -1.6 pts | $6.1K |
| Above 55 | 6.5% | — | $12.7K |
| Above 68 | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $3.0K |
Total volume $113.8K · 24h volume $859 · Liquidity $44.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Above 58 ■ Above 62 ■ Above 50 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Senators voting "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027 is above the number specified in this market's title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Above" means strictly greater than the number specified in the title. For example, a market titled "Above 58" will resolve to "Yes" only if 59 or more Senators vote "Yea".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote must be a vote on final passage of the bill conducted in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. Not every Senator needs to have participated in the vote. The first vote on final passage will be used for resolution regardless of whether the bill passes on that vote; subsequent votes on passage — including any re-vote following a motion to reconsider, or a vote on a conference report or House-amended version — will not be considered.
If no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". If qualifying legislation passes the Senate before January 1, 2027 without a prior recorded vote on final passage (e.g., passage by voice vote or unanimous consent), this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of the number specified in this market's title.
Once the result of the vote has been announced, any subsequent request by a Senator to add, remove, or change a vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Crypto Regulation odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 58 at 8.5%, followed by Above 62 at 8.3%, Above 50 at 8.0%. The market has $113.8K in total volume and $859 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 2, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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