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Crypto Regulation Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 15, 2026 · 22 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 15, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 22 live Crypto Regulation markets with $17.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (Yes 6.3%), followed by Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? (Thom Tillis 10.5%), SBF released from custody in 2026? (Yes 2.3%).

Crypto laws and regulation: market-structure bills, stablecoin rules and enforcement. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Crypto Regulation markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes 6.3%+0.2 pts$6.8KJan 1, 2027
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Thom Tillis 10.5%+0.5 pts$4.4KJan 2, 2027
SBF released from custody in 2026?Yes 2.3%+1.0 pts$3.1KJan 1, 2027
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?Yes 7.0%+3.0 pts$1.6KJan 1, 2027
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Yes 4.3%-2.1 pts$700Jan 1, 2027
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Yes 2.5%+0.1 pts$429Jan 1, 2027
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 32.5%-2.0 pts$228Jan 1, 2027
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?December 31, 2026 2.2%—$81Jan 1, 2027
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?PYUSD 8.2%-5.8 pts$11Jan 1, 2027
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?Yes 7.0%—$1Jan 1, 2027
Will USDT market cap hit $200B by ___?December 31, 2026 44.7%-0.7 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by ___?December 31, 2026 41%-1.0 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Above 50 7.0%—$0Jan 2, 2027
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?Yes 5.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Tom Lee charged by December 31?Yes 2.1%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Ben Pasternak jailed?Yes 3.0%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Senate passes Clarity Act?By October 31 1.7%+0.1 pts$0Nov 1, 2026
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?Yes 9.5%-1.0 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 8.0%—$0Jan 1, 2027
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?Yes 7.5%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Eric Adams charged by December 31?Yes 13.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes 7.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

Raphael Warnock · John Fetterman · Josh Hawley · Rand Paul · Ruben Gallego · Alex Padilla

More Crypto odds

Bitcoin (87) · Ethereum (94) · Solana (98) · XRP (100) · Crypto Prices (163) · Token Launches & FDV (164)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Crypto Regulation odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 15, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 22 live Crypto Regulation markets with $17.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (Yes 6.3%), followed by Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? (Thom Tillis 10.5%), SBF released from custody in 2026? (Yes 2.3%).

How many Crypto Regulation markets are open on Polymarket?

22 live markets as of October 15, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Crypto Regulation odds on Polymarket”, October 15, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/crypto-regulation/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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