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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 475k to 500k at 90.5%, followed by 450k to 475k at 6.0%, 500k to 525k at 3.1%. The market has $65.2K in total volume and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 475k to 500k | 90.5% | +24.0 pts | $23.3K |
| 450k to 475k | 6.0% | -8.3 pts | $17.7K |
| 500k to 525k | 3.1% | -0.3 pts | $6.8K |
| 400k to 425k | 2.8% | -10.3 pts | $4.3K |
| 425k to 450k | 1.1% | -1.4 pts | $7.7K |
| 525k to 550k | 1.1% | +1.0 pts | $2.3K |
| 375k to 400k | 0.1% | -23.4 pts | $1.1K |
| 550k+ | 0.1% | -23.5 pts | $1.0K |
| <375k | 0.1% | -23.6 pts | $1.0K |
Total volume $65.2K · 24h volume $23.1K · Liquidity $25.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 475k to 500k ■ 450k to 475k ■ 500k to 525k · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q3 2026 delivery figures by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 475k to 500k at 90.5%, followed by 450k to 475k at 6.0%, 500k to 525k at 3.1%. The market has $65.2K in total volume and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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