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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 28, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Paul Gibson at 38.5%, followed by Abby McKibben at 36%, Mark Jessop at 19%. The market has $25.0K in total volume and $373 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Gibson | 38.5% | +9.5 pts | $5.0K |
| Abby McKibben | 36% | -7.0 pts | $2.2K |
| Mark Jessop | 19% | -2.5 pts | $420 |
| Marshall Callaghan | 1.1% | +1.0 pts | $758 |
| Toby Thorpe | 0.7% | -0.2 pts | $1.6K |
| Sally Doyle | 0.6% | -0.2 pts | $15.0K |
Total volume $25.0K · 24h volume $373 · Liquidity $95.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Paul Gibson ■ Abby McKibben ■ Mark Jessop · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Huon Valley Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Paul Gibson at 38.5%, followed by Abby McKibben at 36%, Mark Jessop at 19%. The market has $25.0K in total volume and $373 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 28, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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