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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 28.5%, followed by By October 31 at 8.2%. The market has $59.1K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 28.5% | +4.0 pts | $27.4K |
| By October 31 | 8.2% | +3.2 pts | $31.7K |
Total volume $59.1K · 24h volume $4.1K · Liquidity $50.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Ilhan Omar between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Supreme Court odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 28.5%, followed by By October 31 at 8.2%. The market has $59.1K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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