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Supreme Court Odds on Polymarket

Updated September 23, 2026 · 32 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Supreme Court markets with $44.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Maduro Prison Time? (No prison time 54.5%), followed by Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 42.5%), Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? (Yes 6.0%).

Supreme Court rulings, pending cases and the justices. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Supreme Court markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 54.5%-2.0 pts$34.4KJan 1, 2028
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 42.5%—$7.9KJul 1, 2027
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Yes 6.0%-3.0 pts$1.1KJan 1, 2027
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?5–15% 30%—$458Dec 31, 2026
Clavicular arrested?By September 30 5.0%-1.0 pts$386Oct 1, 2026
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?By December 31, 2027 19.5%—$213Jan 1, 2027
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 9.5%+0.5 pts$85Jul 1, 2027
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case?By December 31 32.5%-1.0 pts$63Jan 1, 2027
Diddy released from custody in 2026?Yes 17.8%+12.2 pts$22Jan 1, 2027
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?Yes 21.5%+6.5 pts$17Jan 2, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted?Yes 33%-1.5 pts$17Aug 1, 2027
Clavicular convicted of rape?Yes 16.5%-28.5 pts$16Jul 1, 2028
Jerome Powell federally charged?By December 31, 2026 1.8%—$10Jan 1, 2027
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?Yes 1.5%-0.1 pts$10Jan 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?Yes 7.6%—$1Dec 31, 2026
Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?Yes 5.2%-0.1 pts$1Oct 1, 2026
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes 22%+1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?Yes 4.3%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister?By December 31 56.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?Yes 1.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?Yes 15%+3.5 pts$0Aug 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?Yes 5.5%—$0Dec 31, 2026
D4vd released from custody in 2026?Yes 8.0%+2.0 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI?By December 31, 2026 12%+2.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?James Ho 18.5%—$0Jan 20, 2029
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?Yes 5.7%—$0Jan 1, 2027
SPLC found guilty in 2026?Yes 7.8%—$0Jan 1, 2027
E. Jean Carroll federally charged?By December 31 27%—$0Jan 1, 2027
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?Yes 20.1%+0.6 pts$0Nov 1, 2027
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?Yes 10%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Daejon Love convicted of fraud or conspiracy by June 30?Yes 46.5%—$0Jun 30, 2027
Netanyahu convicted in corruption trial?Yes 26.5%—$0Jan 1, 2028

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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More Politics & Elections odds

Trump (110) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (296) · Senate Races (128) · Governor Races (88) · House Races (100) · World Elections (169) · Brazil (100) · France (36) · Germany (22) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (99)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Supreme Court odds on Polymarket today?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Supreme Court markets with $44.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Maduro Prison Time? (No prison time 54.5%), followed by Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 42.5%), Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? (Yes 6.0%).

How many Supreme Court markets are open on Polymarket?

32 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

Use this data

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