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Supreme Court Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 7, 2026 · 45 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 45 live Supreme Court markets with $12.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 19.5%), followed by SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case? (By December 31 11.5%), Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President? (By March 31, 2027 16%).

Supreme Court rulings, pending cases and the justices. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Supreme Court markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 19.5%—$3.8KJul 1, 2027
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case?By December 31 11.5%-8.0 pts$2.1KJan 1, 2027
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President?By March 31, 2027 16%-23.0 pts$1.3KApr 1, 2027
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged?By December 31 7.0%-3.0 pts$1.2KJan 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?By December 31, 2027 28%-1.5 pts$1.1KJan 1, 2027
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?Saudi Arabia 17%-5.0 pts$692Jan 1, 2027
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 60.5%+6.5 pts$619Jan 1, 2028
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 10.5%-1.0 pts$496Jul 1, 2027
Święczkowski charged by December 31?Yes 53.5%-0.5 pts$254Jan 1, 2027
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?Yes 11%-2.0 pts$169Jan 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?Yes 1.7%-1.1 pts$137Dec 31, 2026
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?Yes 3.5%-7.0 pts$127Jan 2, 2027
Mary Peltola charged by January 31?Yes 7.8%+4.4 pts$120Feb 1, 2027
Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?Yes 63.5%-2.5 pts$83Aug 2, 2027
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax?By June 30, 2028 28.5%—$40Jul 1, 2028
Ilhan Omar federally charged?By December 31 21.5%+0.5 pts$25Jan 1, 2027
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?Yes 13.5%-0.4 pts$23Jan 1, 2027
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Yes 5.1%+0.7 pts$18Jan 1, 2027
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister?By December 31 80.7%-7.8 pts$18Jan 1, 2027
Jerome Powell federally charged?By December 31, 2026 1.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?Yes 0.7%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes 33.5%+2.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?Yes 3.8%+0.3 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?Yes 19%+0.5 pts$0Aug 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?Yes 2.9%—$0Dec 31, 2026
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?5–15% 89.5%—$0Dec 31, 2026
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI?By December 31, 2026 17%—$0Jan 1, 2027
D4vd released from custody in 2026?Yes 7.0%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?James Ho 28%—$0Jan 20, 2029
Dan J. Sullivan charged by January 31?Yes 5.8%-0.6 pts$0Feb 1, 2027
Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?Yes 20.5%—$0Jan 1, 2028
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?Yes 4.1%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?Yes 0.7%—$0Dec 1, 2026
Diddy released from custody in 2026?Yes 12.2%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Supreme Court revives Arizona's proof-of-citizenship voting rules?Yes 43.5%+3.5 pts$0Aug 2, 2027
SPLC found guilty in 2026?Yes 12%+1.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
E. Jean Carroll federally charged?By December 31 19.3%-4.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?Yes 51%+3.1 pts$0Nov 1, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted?Yes 37.5%+1.5 pts$0Aug 1, 2027
Anyone charged over Wedgewood fake polls by June 30, 2027?Yes 50.5%—$0Jul 1, 2027

5 smaller markets are not shown; all 45 are in the JSON data.

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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More Politics & Elections odds

Trump (117) · 2028 Presidential Election (45) · 2026 Midterms (3) · Senate Races (18) · Governor Races (0) · House Races (0) · World Elections (128) · Brazil (26) · France (37) · Germany (15) · United Kingdom (23) · Canada (38) · Mexico (62) · Politics (78)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Supreme Court odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 45 live Supreme Court markets with $12.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 19.5%), followed by SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case? (By December 31 11.5%), Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President? (By March 31, 2027 16%).

How many Supreme Court markets are open on Polymarket?

45 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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/api/v1/topics/supreme-court.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.

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Polymarket View, “Supreme Court odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/supreme-court/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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