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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 14.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.6%. The market has $1.13M in total volume and $20 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 14.5% | — | $163.8K |
| By September 30 | 1.6% | — | $327 |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $487.3K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $360.7K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $79.0K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $35.6K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $3.5K |
Total volume $1.13M · 24h volume $20 · Liquidity $22.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 14.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.6%. The market has $1.13M in total volume and $20 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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