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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 28, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Likud at 56.5%, followed by Yashar at 36.5%, Together at 1.7%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $861 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 56.5% | -3.5 pts | $4.3K |
| Yashar | 36.5% | +3.0 pts | $13.1K |
| Together | 1.7% | -0.4 pts | $994 |
| Shas | 1.1% | — | $274 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 1.1% | — | $274 |
| The Democrats | 1.1% | — | $269 |
| United Torah Judaism | 0.5% | — | $379 |
| Blue and White | 0.5% | — | $259 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 0.5% | — | $219 |
| Ra'am | 0.5% | — | $209 |
| Amcha Yisrael | 0.5% | — | $209 |
| Noam | 0.5% | — | $209 |
| The Reservists and the Economic Party | 0.5% | — | $409 |
| RZP-Zehut | 0.5% | — | $404 |
| Joint List | 0.5% | — | $354 |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $861 · Liquidity $367.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Likud ■ Yashar ■ Together · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Likud at 56.5%, followed by Yashar at 36.5%, Together at 1.7%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $861 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 28, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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