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Israel Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 103 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Israel: elections, Netanyahu, Gaza and the regional conflict. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Israel markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 25 97.4% | +0.4 pts | $265.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 52.8% | -0.1 pts | $249.5K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $108.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 30 96.3% | -0.2 pts | $72.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Netanyahu visit New York City? | By September 30 99.4% | +2.2 pts | $20.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | September 23 92.9% | +20.4 pts | $9.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election? | By September 30 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $8.6K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly? | Nuclear 95.7% | +4.2 pts | $6.5K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 6.5% | — | $6.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Beirut? | By October 31 15% | — | $5.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 17.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm? | By December 31 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $4.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Syria? | By October 31 31% | -42.0 pts | $3.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30? | Mark Carney 87% | +11.5 pts | $2.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? | Likud 47.5% | +20.0 pts | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner | Yashar 62% | -1.0 pts | $2.0K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel? | By October 31 27.5% | -45.0 pts | $2.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Bank of Israel Decision in October? | No Change 77.5% | — | $2.0K | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? | Lebanon 11% | +1.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) | September 30 2.3% | -0.7 pts | $1.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Israel Election: Likud # of seats? | 20-24 37.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.2K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Netanyahu and Pezeshkian meet by September 30? | Yes 1.9% | -24.6 pts | $1.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? | By December 31 14% | -3.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Iraq? | By October 31 20% | — | $1.1K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Netanyahu arrested by…? | December 31 4.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 3.2% | +0.4 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II? | By December 31 16% | -4.0 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | Yes 86% | — | $1.0K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? | December 31 14% | +3.0 pts | $851 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | RZP-Zehut 89% | +1.0 pts | $820 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? | Yashar 69% | — | $783 | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Trump meets with Netanyahu? | By December 31 59.5% | -0.5 pts | $760 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel Election: Yashar # of seats? | 22-23 22.5% | +0.5 pts | $740 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza? | By December 31 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $716 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats? | 6-7 51% | +5.0 pts | $650 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Israel Election: Together # of seats? | 11-13 32.5% | +15.5 pts | $631 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Netanyahu out? | By December 31 50.5% | — | $597 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 7.5% | -3.5 pts | $570 | Jan 1, 2027 |
63 smaller markets are not shown; all 103 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Israel odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 103 live Israel markets with $810.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through September 25 97.4%), followed by Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 52.8%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 14.5%).
How many Israel markets are open on Polymarket?
103 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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