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Updated November 7, 2026 · 97 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 97 live Israel markets with $4.93M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 10.5%).
Israel: elections, Netanyahu, Gaza and the regional conflict. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 5 99.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.83M | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through November 4 99.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.63M | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $250.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $59.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 31.5% | +3.0 pts | $41.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli government formed? | By June 30, 2027 83.5% | +8.0 pts | $27.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $10.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Netanyahu out? | By June 30, 2027 69.5% | +9.5 pts | $9.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights? | By January 31, 2027 54.5% | -4.0 pts | $6.9K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Iran coup attempt? | By December 31, 2027 27.5% | +6.0 pts | $6.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 9.5% | -2.0 pts | $5.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli Knesset election annulled? | Yes 2.2% | -0.9 pts | $5.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which coalition will form the next Israeli government? | Other 62.5% | +17.5 pts | $4.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | November 8 87.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government? | No second mandate 51% | — | $3.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Finance? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? | Yashar 78.5% | +7.5 pts | $3.3K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 28.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.3K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $3.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset? | Yair Lapid 59.5% | +13.0 pts | $2.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 35.4% | +2.5 pts | $2.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | Yes 40.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? | Venezuela 5.5% | — | $1.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? | Somaliland 11% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of National Security? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 31.5% | +10.0 pts | $1.4K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli government a minority government? | Yes 38.5% | +2.5 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Iran damage undersea internet cables? | By December 31 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? | Yes 13% | -0.5 pts | $959 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | Yair Lapid 41.5% | -6.5 pts | $798 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will Hezbollah target Israel? | By November 30 44.5% | -2.5 pts | $777 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Bank of Israel Decision in January? | No Change 37.5% | +17.0 pts | $598 | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Bank of Israel Decision in February? | No Change 39.5% | +5.0 pts | $566 | Feb 22, 2027 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm? | By December 31, 2026 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $528 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US announces military base in Israel in 2026? | Yes 8.8% | -8.6 pts | $475 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $458 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? | Yes 59% | +2.0 pts | $397 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Houthi military action against Israel? | By December 31 17.5% | -4.5 pts | $383 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon? | By December 31, 2027 31.5% | -3.0 pts | $377 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Beirut? | By November 30 11.5% | -8.0 pts | $354 | Jan 1, 2027 |
57 smaller markets are not shown; all 97 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Reza Pahlavi · Mojtaba Khamenei · Joint List · Benjamin Netanyahu · Gadi Eizenkot · Naftali Bennett · Avigdor Lieberman · Yair Golan · Moshe Feiglin · Yair Lapid · Nir Barkat · Israel Katz · Amir Ohana · Gideon Sa’ar · Ayelet Shaked
Iran (116) · Strait of Hormuz (30) · Middle East (121) · Russia–Ukraine War (141) · China & Taiwan (80) · Venezuela (28) · Geopolitics (163)
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 97 live Israel markets with $4.93M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? (Through November 5 99.3%), followed by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? (Through November 4 99.9%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 10.5%).
97 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/israel/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Israel odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel/">Israel odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/israel.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Israel odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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