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Updated October 2, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 2, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.0%. The market has $297.8K in total volume and $858 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.0% | -1.5 pts | $78.3K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $123.7K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.9 pts | $95.7K |
Total volume $297.8K · 24h volume $858 · Liquidity $6.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 2, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.0%. The market has $297.8K in total volume and $858 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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